Severe Housing Downturn in Canada is Unlikely

 

Royal Bank has stated that a widespread real estate downturn is unlikely and that the probability is “still low but has increased somewhat in recent months”. Mortgage stress tests and rising rates are making it harder for buyers to get a foot in the door.

Toronto, Vancouver & Alberta are currently at risk due to the high interest rates put on the high-priced areas, and affordability is a major at a crisis level. “Regulatory changes made the market healthier – it is now balanced, well supported by economic and demographic fundamentals, and while condo building activity is elevated we see few signs of overbuilding,” says RBC.

Montreal remains one of Canada’s stronger markets at the present time, says RBC. Elevated levels of apartment construction in Montreal, Vancouver, and Toronto is a potential long-term concern, however unsold inventories are low.

 

For more on this article, visit: https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/severe-housing-downturn-canada-unlikely-rbc-190257940.html

 

Canada Considers Applying Mortgage Stress Test Rules To Private Lenders

Canada is considering subjecting private lenders to the same mortgage stress test rules faced by banks to prevent housing markets from being destabilized by the lenders’ rapid growth, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Private lenders currently account for approximately one-tenth of Canada’s $1.5 trillion mortgage market, and are still dwarfed by banks but their growth has accelerated since the new rules have been introduced. The B-20 rules that were introduced last January require banks to test the borrower’s ability to make repayments at 200 basist points above their contracted rate, and have resulted in more applications for loans being rejected.

As of now, private lenders are not subject to the B-20 rules because they are supervised by provincial regulations rather than the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, the federal regulator. Bringing them under federal supervision would require a change in the law.

Two options were discussed, either the federal government would have to ask provinces to apply the B-20 guidelines themselves, private lenders would then also need to provide stress tests the same as the banks’, or the less severe alternative – to recommend provinces ensure private lenders run tighter checks on the ability of their borrowers to repay loans but stop short of imposing the actual stress test. A final decision has yet to be made.

Mortgage investment companies (MICs), have been the main driver of private lenders’ growth, picking up borrowers spurned by the banks. Lending up to 90 per cent of a property’s value, they typically charge borrowers an annual rate above 10 percent, sometimes as high as 15-20 compared with the 3-5 percent offered by banks.

For more on this article visit: https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/exclusive-canada-mulls-measures-to-curb-private-lenders-growth

 

 

10 Canadian Housing Charts That Show How Out Of Whack The Market Is

After years of booming times, Canada’s housing markets are at a turning point. Interest rates are rising, and the new mortgage rules have taken some steam out of the market.

Below are 10 charts illustrating just how out of whack things have become.

Canadians have never had to shell out more of their income to own a home:

Condo construction is at an all-time high:

Young families are not wanting to live in said condos:

You need to be a one-percenter to own an “average” Vancouver home:

Vancouver homes are comically overpriced:

Vancouver’s new distinction: Worst housing market:

There aren’t enough new residents to prop up Vancouver’s market:

Toronto has as much as it can handle:

Mortgage growth is at historic lows:

Investment condos are now often losing money:

 

Liberals Look To Make Home-Buying More Affordable For Millenials

 

Finance Minister Bill Morneau gave a speech in Aurora, Ont., where he asked if Ottawa has any plans to help first time-buyers. Morneau said the Trudeau government is looking for ways to make home-buying more affordable first-time buyers.

Housing is expected to be a prominent campaign issue ahead in October’s federal election. The Liberal government has focused on three housing-related issues: Canada’s shortage of affordable housing, a run-up in real estate prices and ensuring millenials can afford homes.

He stated that the Federal government has already taken steps to increase the supply of affordable housing and to cool the hottest markets by introducing stress tests that limit some people’s ability to take out big mortgages.

According to the Toronto Real Estate Board, the average price for all types of housing there was $810,000 in December. Detached homes were going for more than $918,000. Conservative MP Karen Vecchio argued in a statement Tuesday that Trudeau government policies, including it’s carbon tax, have made housing less affordable.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh proposed measures he insisted will help build 500,000 new affordable housing units across Canada over the next 10 years. He said Ottawa should stop applying GST to the cost of building new affordable units, provide a subsidy to renters who spend more than 30 per cent of their incomes on housing and double a tax credit for first-time home-buyers from $750 to $1,500.

In 2015, Liberals promised to enhance the popular Home Buyer’s Plan which enables first-time buyers to borrow up to $25,000 tax-free from their registered retirement savings to purchase a new home. The amount musst be repaid within 15 years. And in 2017, they unveiled a 10-year, $40-billion national housing strategy which the government has billed as a plan that will provide more social housing and affordable renting units.

 

For more on this article, visit:  https://www.princegeorgecitizen.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Toronto remains popular choice for global CRE investors

Among the top 30 cities favoured by investors for commercial real estate, Toronto ranks among the top 30 cities. It has help this position for every year in the past decade. However, Canada’s only city in the annual JLL rankings has slipped down the list from 14th to 19th, through the duration of 2017 to 2018. Asia Pacific cities are increasing in popularity.

London is still being favoured in the commercial real estate world, despite Brexit. The global rankings show that investors prefer cities they are familiar with, that have a well-established investment market, and high levels of transparency. New York slipped back in 2017 with Los Angeles becoming North America’s top city.

“In a year when investors have had to deal with increasing populism, protectionism and political uncertainty, the appeal of real estate as an asset class has continued to increase,” commented Richard Bloxam, Global Head of Capital Markets at JLL.

Investors remain focused on gateway cities, despite tight pricing. Many are looking at alternatives or emerging locations, as well as varying real estate properties within these cities, rather than exploring other less familiar cities.

Total volumes in 2018 were $733 billion, up 4% from 2017, the best annual performance in a decade.

Cross-border purchases accounted for 31% of activity in 2018, close to the 10-year average, suggesting investors still have appetite to buy outside their own markets.

“A notable trend is that half of these established gateway cities are in Asia Pacific. Increasing transparency in these markets is encouraging more investment, moving these cities even higher up the rankings in 2019 and beyond,” Bloxham said.

Looking ahead for 2019
Over the next year, JLL is forecasting a pull-back by some investors due to caution and selectivity.

That could mean a 5-10% reduction on 2018’s volumes although real estate remains an attractive investment compared to other asset classes with strong fundamentals.

Yields are now at historic lows in most markets across the globe. A sharp correction is unlikely, as there is still a significant weight of capital looking to invest in real estate, and corporate occupier market fundamentals across many markets are positive.

Among other key factors in JLL’s forecast:

  • The institutional real estate universe will continue to expand, driven by factors such as low volatility, diversification benefits, long-term income and an attractive pricing premium to core sectors. Asset classes such as student housing, senior living and multi-family have continued to attract more institutional money in 2018 and this is likely to continue in 2019.
  • Industrial now accounts for 17% of all investment, up from 10% in 2009. In contrast, the retail sector has seen less activity as investors adjust their investment approach to reflect changing consumer behavior. In gateway cities, the office sector tends to account for a higher proportion of investment volumes—68% in 2018, compared to 51% in global volumes.
  • The top 30 will continue to be dominated by the gateway cities in 2019. However, at the edges, investors will consider a widening range of cities in their strategies. Reflecting real estate investors’ risk appetite, secondary cities in established transparent markets, such as Osaka and Atlanta, are likely to attract more attention, as opposed to moving into entirely new countries.

For More On This Article, Visit: https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/

The drop in 2018 Canadian Home Prices Isn’t What It Seems

Robert Kavcic, a senior economist for BMO suggests the decline in Canadian home sales and prices is not as bad as it seems. “Remember: If the price of every house in the neighbourhood stays the same in a given year, but fewer of the expensive ones change hands in favour of the cheaper ones, the ‘average price’ will fall”.

The average price of a Canadian home this past December was $472,000 down 4.9 percent from the same month a year ago, according to the CREA.

For the whole year, home prices have gone down by 4.1%, marking the biggest drop since 1995. Sales were especially low in the costly Toronto and Vancouver markets, which is going to have a considerable pull on the nation average price.

Removing Greater Vancouver and the GTA from calculations trims close to $100,000 from the national average.

“Main points here: It wasn’t as bad as the headline 2018 national price decline look; but it wasn’t good for much of the country either; and this year could see housing stagnation become a wider and more persistent theme” Kavcic concludes.

 

For more on this article, visit: https://www.livabl.com/2019/01/drop-2018-canadian-home-prices.html?utm_source=Weekly+BuzzBuzzReport&utm_campaign=fa2f6e35d1-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_06_29_03_54_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6d6db2b31f-fa2f6e35d1-217826257

Government intervention can backfire! Who knew?

Could the city of Toronto really have overestimated its revenue from its land transfer tax by almost $100 million?

It has been a common government refrain for years now — and from all levels of government, mind you — that something must be done to cool the city’s housing market. The Ontario government has been trying to cool the market by implementing a foreign speculation tax for the Greater Golden Horseshoe region. The Bank of Canada has been trying to cool the market by raising interest rates. The country’s federal financial regulator has been trying to cool the market by tightening up mortgage rules.

Revenues from the land transfer tax are projected to come in $99.2 million short, due primarily to what a city council finance update describes as “lower residential market activity.”

In other words, the market cooled, and Toronto politicians were caught off-guard. Astonished. Startled. Who could have predicted? No one saw that coming. Except maybe everyone who is not a member of Toronto’s City Council.

To be fair, Toronto councillors may have thought they were just being realistic. Governments everywhere have a poor track record of achieving their desired results by intervening in the market. Maybe Toronto thought, “Well it’s true that the feds and the folks at Queen’s Park and all their friends are trying to cool the market. But there’s no real reason to believe they’ll succeed. I mean, it’s government. You know.”
Or maybe Toronto’s city council was just too clueless and greedy to notice all the signs that its cash cow would soon be producing significantly less milk. And to plan accordingly.

Now the city must figure out how to make up the money.

Fortunately, the city came in underbudget in other areas, so there will be no budget deficit this year. Going forward, however, is a different story. To get by, Toronto will have to cut services or institute a significant increase in property taxes.

As we are seeing firsthand in Toronto, that further interference — in particular, interference designed to cool markets — can lead to funding gaps when municipal revenues fall, due to factors such as the land transfer tax, or simply lower property values which decrease property tax revenues.

taken from & read more: https://nationalpost.com/opinion/marni-soupcoff-wow-looks-like-government-intervention-can-backfire-who-knew

Toronto’s Home Shortage Issues Continuing Into 2041

Toronto is currently missing out on crucial population targets which are leading to a huge shortage of homes. Between now and 2041 – there could be 7,200 less homes built each year due to these missed targets.

This report indicates that as many as 165,600 homes would not be built, and the loss would be equal to $1.95 billion in GDP from residential construction: http://rccao.com/research/files/RCCAO_LPAT_REPORT_2018.pdf

 

 

 

 

Areas of concern are that only 15% of GTHA households occupy medium-density housing, causing an inadequate supply of housing variety. Municipalities can better optimize infrastructure by ensuring that community growth planning is based on a long-term and strategic analysis of future housing requirements.

Toronto’s number of annual starts is 5-15% higher than required to hit targets, but lack of land availability means the city’s supply will be geared toward taller buildings. York Region is the area in the GTHA with current annual starts on pace to meet its future target population. In areas with over 80,000 people, Oshawa, Brampton & Newmarket have the lowest share of higher-density starts.

For more info on this subject – visit: http://torontostoreys.com/2018/12/toronto-home-shortage-2041/

 

Are Condo Boards Working With The Grinch?

“No Christmas Trees Allowed?”

Most Condo Boards have begun posting notices around their lobby and in mail rooms “Real Christmas Trees are Not Permitted” “Wreaths and Other Decorations or Door Knockers Are Not to Be Hung on Your Unit Door”.

Does Your Condo Board Allow Christmas Trees?

Many of these notices have logical reasons behind them, fire hazards for example, and imagine hundreds of unit owners trying to proudly fit their 7ft Douglas Fir into the elevators. Talk about a cramped elevator ride – and a messy lobby!

However these bulletins during the Holiday Season can sound like they were written by the Grinch himself.

So how can we get our Holiday Spirit Back into our Condominiums?


Check Out Our 3 Favourite Ways to Add Some Festive Decorations To Your Condo!

  1. For Outdoorsy Types, swap out some shelves with tree branches. You’ll get that authentic Christmas tree feel without the pine-needle mess!

Keep it low enough for the kids to hang their favourite soft ornaments with ribbon or string

One string of lights should do the trick – Have some fun and dump the regular shaped bulbs for star shaped lights!

 


2. If it’s pretty ornaments that get you into the holiday spirit, a mesh screen is a great place setter for your favourite ones! This gorgeous DIY vintage window frame can display as many  or as little ornaments as you like.

Bonus: Not feeling the spot you set up? Pick up the whole frame (carefully) and move it around to any room you like!

3. A True Artist Cannot *Resist* a Chalk Board Wall! Check out the beautiful scene complete with fireplace and ode to Rudolph.

How are you going to dress up your Condo For The Holidays? 

Let us know! Post your pics on social media and hashtag #SuttonSpirit so we can see them too! 

 

Sutton Group Realty Systems Inc. Brokerage www.SuttonRealty.com
Toronto: 416-762-4200    Mississauga: 905-896-3333

What To Expect From The Canadian Housing Market in 2019

2018 – The year when Canada’s housing market hit the brakes… What will happen in 2019?

The Canadian Real Estate Association sees home sales rebounding a little (2.1 per cent) in 2019 with home prices roughly keeping up with inflation (2.7 per cent). In Ontario, prices will likely climb a little faster (3.3 per cent) and in British Columbia, a bit more slowly.

Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia & Prince Edward Island can also expect modest price gains, while Saskatchewan and Newfoundland Labrador will experience a small dipping. The forecast for Alberta was stable, although that predated the recent oil price plunge.

The big banks expect interest rates to continue to rise between 2.25 per cent & 2.75 per cent by the end of 2019. Todd Schlanger, senior investment strategist at Vanguard Investments Canada says the Canadian economy will likely continue to grow in 2019, albeit at a slower pace than in 2018. 

Rather than a housing collapse, a more likely scenario is one in which home prices stagnate as household incomes slowly catch up. Another factor that might help keep the market stable is that rents are sky-high. This could help sustain the demand from homebuyers. 

Home buyers should be patient, and not count on price gains to make up for negative cash flow. And home sellers should be realistic and not fixate on “old peak prices” as they usually end up having to “chase the market down” watching their asking price gradually fall. If you are keen on selling, you have to be ahead of the market and possibly anticipate future prices declines.

For more on this article, visit:

Will it crash? Here’s what to expect from the Canadian housing market in 2019