According to Morguard’s 2019 Canadian Economic Outlook & Market Fundamentals, not only is Toronto’s economy on fire but it’s commercial vacancy rate is very low due to constrained supply & high demand, which in turn has put upward pressure on prices.
It is apparently a real struggle to find office space in both Vancouver and Toronto as rents are at peak for this cycle. Toronto is easily the country’s safest bet for investment funds and a huge reason for that is the city’s diverse economy.
Keith Reading (Morguard’s director of research) says that Toronto is the biggest economic centre in Canada and also the most stable. “Over time, values will only increase in the commercial sector. You can’t just create another Toronto. It’s a 24-hour, world-class city, so your investment is pretty safe. It’s a large, diverse economy and it has a lot of things going for it. If you’re looking for a safety in your investment, Toronto is the first place to go in Canada.”
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If your budget is under $400,000 or even $350,000 – the Hamilton area has more to offer than you might think.
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Stan works with many investors looking for income properties or homes with the potential of great rent. He can assist with sending you listing on special properties, giving you advice on neighbour conveniences and which areas command the highest rent.
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2018 – The year when Canada’s housing market hit the brakes… What will happen in 2019?
The Canadian Real Estate Association sees home sales rebounding a little (2.1 per cent) in 2019 with home prices roughly keeping up with inflation (2.7 per cent). In Ontario, prices will likely climb a little faster (3.3 per cent) and in British Columbia, a bit more slowly.
Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia & Prince Edward Island can also expect modest price gains, while Saskatchewan and Newfoundland Labrador will experience a small dipping. The forecast for Alberta was stable, although that predated the recent oil price plunge.
The big banks expect interest rates to continue to rise between 2.25 per cent & 2.75 per cent by the end of 2019. Todd Schlanger, senior investment strategist at Vanguard Investments Canada says the Canadian economy will likely continue to grow in 2019, albeit at a slower pace than in 2018.
Rather than a housing collapse, a more likely scenario is one in which home prices stagnate as household incomes slowly catch up. Another factor that might help keep the market stable is that rents are sky-high. This could help sustain the demand from homebuyers.
Home buyers should be patient, and not count on price gains to make up for negative cash flow. And home sellers should be realistic and not fixate on “old peak prices” as they usually end up having to “chase the market down” watching their asking price gradually fall. If you are keen on selling, you have to be ahead of the market and possibly anticipate future prices declines.
Make intelligent decisions by tapping into the industry’s most comprehensive data and respected insights on the GTA condominium and rental market.
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TORONTO – November 01, 2018: Urbanation Inc., the leading source of information and analysis on the Toronto condominium market since 1981, released its Q3-2018 condo market results today.
Highlights of the release include:
New condominium apartment sales in the Greater Toronto Area increased 4% year-over-year to 4,738 units in Q3-2018, reaching the third highest Q3 volume of the past 10 years
Year-to-date sales of 14,055 units were down 46% from the record high of 25,839 sales recorded during the same period last year
Resale condominium apartment sales grew 2% annually in Q3-2018 to 5,253 units, marking the first annual increase since Q1-2017
Unsold inventory of new condos in development increased 2% quarter-over-quarter and 22% year-over-year to 9,927 units, although remaining 33% below the 10-year average of 14,806 units. Unsold inventory equaled 5.2 months of supply, rising from 5.1 months in Q2-2018 and 3.0 months a year ago in Q3-2017
Despite the growth in supply, the average sold price for all actively marketing projects in Q3 increased 11% annually to $745 psf, with asking prices for unsold units up 19% to an average of $972 psf. Within new projects that opened for pre-sale during the third quarter, prices averaged $745,416, a 33% jump from a year ago ($562,340). The average size of a new unit launched in Q3-2018 was 714 sf, resulting in average per square foot prices for new launches rising past $1,000 for the first time ($1,044 psf)
Average resale condominium prices grew by 6.5% year-over-year to $690 psf, or $577,000 based on an average size of 837 sf, representing a sharp deceleration from the 27% annual pace recorded a year ago in Q3-2017
Construction started on a record 8,150 new condominiums in Q3-2018, raising the total number of condos under construction to a new high of 67,581 units in 236 buildings. Projects under construction were 95% pre-sold on average.
Quarterly new condominium apartment sales have settled into a relatively steady pace in recent quarters, following frenetic levels in 2017. However, the market appears poised to receive a boost in the final months of the year as a significant number of new units launch for pre-sale, which should be met by strong demand given current trends. The average opening quarter absorption rate for new launches has remained above 55% for 11 straight quarters dating back to Q1-2016 (averaging 58% in Q3-2018). This was not solely reflective of increased investor activity, as projects with a mix of buyers, as well as those geared primarily to end-users, have been achieving high absorptions upon opening. However, not every project is selling quickly — 8 of 17 projects launched in Q3-2018 sold less than 30% of their units, compared to only 1 of 15 launched in Q3-2017 — illustrating increased price sensitivity, a dispersion of new projects across the GTA region, and the importance of a strong marketing campaign. Looking forward, high price points in the current new condominium market should prevent another sustained resurgence in sales activity in the immediate future.
“The condominium market has performed exceptionally well during its transition from an overheated 2017. Low supply and stabilized demand should continue to provide structural support for prices. However, signs of a slower pace of price growth ahead from factors including rising interest rates and higher completions should be factored into decision making with respect to purchasing investment units”, said Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation.
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Distress sales resulting from bank foreclosure or power of sale provisions, often represent a great way to get a fantastic deal on a home. It’s not easy for the average home buyer to find these deals, because you have to keep scouring the papers and they are not identifiable on the online listing services.
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